希腊，还是希腊（一周股市观察）

希腊一年期国债利率今天已经来到了100%以上，现在是103%。这个数字告诉我们希腊在一年内破产已经是板上钉钉的事了，我个人感觉，希腊能不能挺过2011都是个问题。英国股市今天跳空低开，目前基本把缺口补上了，相对德国法国还是体现了一定的强势。

上周五，欧洲央行首席经济学家德国人斯塔克辞职，反映出了欧洲央行内部矛盾已经白热化。而且有消息传出德国已经开始为希腊破产做准备，主要是保障德国的银行能挺得住。芬兰更是提出要么希腊退出欧元区，要么芬兰退出欧元区。

大虾

近日股市开盘如您所言，可是我有一矿业股再没有其他消息下走高。不知你对希腊下一步对英国股市的刺激怎么看? 我想小挣就跑。

胖头鱼 写道:大虾

近日股市开盘如您所言，可是我有一矿业股再没有其他消息下走高。不知你对希腊下一步对英国股市的刺激怎么看? 我想小挣就跑。

如果按照原来的判断，英国大盘应该是逃命波前的最后一跌了，可能看到4800左右，然后开始大幅反弹，目标应该是5500以上。如果你手中的股票现在不跌反涨，应该是强势的表现，倒不急于出手。再过一个半星期，美联储就该开会了，会有对股市有力的措施出台，那个时候估计就是逃命波开始的时候了，当然具体走势需要到时再分析。

目前唯一的风险是希腊在美联储出台新政策前破产，那样会造成股市大幅下跌。不过现在看可能不大，因为德法英还没有做好准备。

一动不如一静，有你的指点，我们就更有信心躲在暗处等待了。谢谢侬

穆迪周四将下调法国各主要银行评级。

大虾，恕我不明白关联影响。请明示。

谢了

胖头鱼 写道:大虾，恕我不明白关联影响。请明示。

谢了

法国银行对希腊债务敞口较大，穆迪6月就已经将法国各银行列为负面观察，到本周四观察期截止，所以市场传言要降级，对股市来说是个小利空，归根结底还是希腊闹的。今天希腊国债利率涨疯了，1年期国债最高到过120%，我现在有些糊涂了，按理说股市要大跌才对，可今天股市相对来说比较强，看收盘吧。

昨天美国收市前有小道消息说中国要出手救意大利，股市猛涨，中国莫非又要做冤大头？

大虾，

我刚拜读了你老爸的博客，一个字- 牛！！！实在太佩服了。

因希腊风险敞口，穆迪将法国兴业银行和法国农业信贷银行长期评级分别下调一档；并维持法国巴黎银行评级不变。
　　
中国央行货币委员李稻葵周三声称，"不应大量购买欧债，因为欧洲需要的是改革。"

胖头鱼 写道:大虾，

我刚拜读了你老爸的博客，一个字- 牛！！！实在太佩服了。

他最近忙着写新书，博客更新很慢了

现在希腊问题是在急剧恶化，而不是好转，但是，股市却在顽强的上升，要么是主力知道一些我们散户不知道的消息，要么这就是个陷阱。

五大央行联手给银行提供流动性刺激了股市大幅上涨

Markets rise strongly as central banks boost liquidity

Global stocks have risen sharply after five central banks including the Federal Reserve moved to boost the liquidity of commercial banks.

The central banks are to provide the commercial lenders with three additional tranches of dollar loans to help ease any funding pressures.

Banking stocks rose sharply, with BNP Paribas up as much as 22%.

Separately, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) boss said the world economy was in a "dangerous new phase".

IMF managing director Christine Lagarde has also called for "collective bold action" to prevent developed economies from slipping back.

Speaking in Washington, she said: "Uncertainty hovers over sovereigns across the advanced economies, banks in Europe, and households in the United States.

"Without collective, bold, action, there is a real risk that the major economies slip back instead of moving forward."
Three-month loans

The move by the central banks follows fears about the exposure of banks to eurozone debt.

The UK's FTSE 100 index was up 2.1%, while Germany's Dax added 3.5%, and France's Cac advancing 4.4%. Wall Street's Dow Jones rose 1% in early trading.

The other central banks taking part in the move are the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the Swiss National Bank.

The three additional three-month loan offers will be conducted in October, November and December.

French banks have posted the biggest rises following the announcement, as they are the most exposed to sovereign debt in Greece and other heavily indebted eurozone nations.

Credit Agricole and Societe Generale both advanced 11% and Natixis gained 7.8%.

On Wednesday, Credit Agricole and Societe Generale each had their credit ratings downgraded by rating agency Moody's, after it reviewed their exposure to Greek debt.

Moody's also said it would keep BNP Paribas on review for a possible downgrade.

In the UK, shares in Lloyds Banking Group were 6% higher following the announcement by the central banks, while Barclays was up 5.3%.

Analysts have welcomed the move by central banks, but warned that more will still have to be done to tackle the underlying problem of high levels of eurozone sovereign debt.

"The stress is still there as long as sovereign debt issues aren't dealt with aggressively, but this move eases short-term funding problems," said Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak in New York.

上面那个消息可能就是主力早就知道的了，看看股市上涨的力度如何吧。

瑞银UBS被捕的交易员损失了2Billion的欧元，都是让瑞士央行害的。

这个交易员压了不少钱赌欧元瑞郎波动率扩大，本来赚了不少，谁知道瑞士央行突然宣布欧元瑞郎底线1.2，结果波动率一下几乎降到了0，所以就爆仓了。

下周炒股大赛就要开始了，周末要好好做做功课。

然后我这个半白痴才明白了好些严重性。瑞士银行的新闻我也看到了。我们老板正急着从中寻找商机呢。 呵呵，我也报名参加大赛了。 但打算胡搞一顿，乱中取胜， 盲拳打死老师傅。