货币战争来了 （关注焦点）

（转自FupengLondon的博客）

瑞士点燃“货币大战”到“贸易壁垒”的导火索

来源：中国商报网 | 作者：银河期货首席宏观经济顾问 付鹏 2011.9.7

伴随着瑞士央行向全球发布的通知声明，瑞士法郎瞬间贬值，瑞士央行的一种半固定汇率制度正式的向全球宣布一场真正的‘货币’大战拉开了大幕。这种竞争性贬值的官方行为已经开始使得全球干预汇率市场的行动失去了主观的节制，这正在引导全球货币体系走向不利的方向。

虽然2008年的金融危机下危机的延续模式非常清楚，但这场由金融危机到债务危机再到货币危机的理论逻辑中，直到瑞士央行做出举动的那一刻，这场危机的根本性实质-货币体系中的巨大矛盾才算正式的浮出水面。

由于2008年金融危机后各国政府主动的采取凯恩斯的扩张政策为了避免经济的‘大萧条’的产生，而在经济面临着增长‘瓶颈’乏力的时候这样做的结果毫无疑问当政府，寄希望于快速扩张的财政政策能够实现经济的自我良性增长的时候，最终导致政府债务不断激增而累积下的‘债务’危机；

而当这场债务危机和低速增长的经济预期纠结在一起的时候，削减政府债务（即减少政府财政支出），而这毫无疑问打断了财政和货币双腿支撑的经济‘复苏’的身躯；这就意味着各国为了保住或避免经济再次出现所谓的‘二次衰退’，所剩下的选择也就只有两个：一方面加强版的货币宽松刺激流动性寄希望于流动性能托起经济不陷入萧条；而另一方面就是通过货币贬值来增加出口的方法刺激经济增长。

而近期巴西央行下调利率，瑞士央行将其对欧元的汇率固定在了不低于1.2水平之下的做法，已经开始显现出面对着未来全球经济‘滞’的状态，一些依靠着出口为主的国家已经不能够忍受浮动汇率制度下美元贬值带来的变相的本币升值的巨大压力。一场多国博弈的‘货币’大战已经开始，而这场货币贬值竞赛更像是一种货币形势下的贸易保护，面对着随时可能陷入严重萧条的经济情况，由于各国不能够直接采用关税保护本国商品，那么全球各国货币贬值将成为世界各国经济恢复增长的关键。

但这绝对不是一种积极的信号，由于所有货币都贬值是一场无法均衡的游戏，那么如果各国都希望能够借助于‘货币贬值’而达到恢复经济增长的话，全球货币体系的重要霸主‘美元’将面临着‘被升值’的过程，而这将损害同样需要经济复苏的美国的利益，而如果都寄希望于‘货币’贬值来保护促进经济的话，那么这场多国博弈的“货币大战”将通过建立贸易壁垒等方式以牙还牙、针锋相对，而这必将导致全球一体化下的贸易模式一步步的滑向全球贸易保护主义的“泥潭”。

瑞士央行的这种做法，也可以从某种角度理解成一种对于美国未来强烈货币再扩张引发本币升值预期的提前防范，那么未来伯南克一旦迫于经济下滑的压力开始新一轮的量化宽松，那么未来各国货币再次被迫升值的时候，各国均有可能‘仿效’瑞士，一场货币大战将逐步的演变成一场贸易保护主义，而这正如上世纪30年代的大萧条一样，全球一旦陷入极端的贸易保护主义政策的‘泥潭’中不能够自拔的话，这样的做法将使得全球经济从低速增长的‘滞’的状态进而转变成真实的衰退

(转自BBC Stephanie Flanders 的博客)

Swiss move to make its safe-haven less attractive

Risk-free? No thank you.

"Lord, make us a safe haven, but not too safe." That could be Switzerland's new national anthem.

The likes of Greece and Italy might be desperately trying to win the confidence of international investors, but today the Swiss central bank promised to spend an unlimited amount of money turning investors off.

Such are the strange - and yes, scary - times in which we live.

The Swiss have been trying to become less popular in the markets for a while now, ever since global investors decided that risk was "off" and safe havens were in. Again and again, the authorities have warned currency traders that the Swiss franc was not a one way bet. All to no avail.

Buying foreign currency to keep a lid on the Swiss franc last year cost the Swiss National Bank (SNB) nearly 20bn Swiss francs ($23.2bn, 16.6bn euros, £14.3bn) - and nearly cost its chairman, Philipp Hildebrand, his job.
Getting serious

The SNB has lost another 10bn Swiss francs since the start of 2011. Since the start of 2010 the currency has appreciated by 31%, in real terms

But now Mr Hildebrand has decided to get serious. Here's the key paragraph from the statement that the Bank put out first thing this morning.

I'm quoting it at length, because it's unlike any press release you're likely to have seen from a major central bank: "The current massive overvaluation of the Swiss franc poses an acute threat to the Swiss economy and carries the risk of a deflationary development.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is therefore aiming for a substantial and sustained weakening of the Swiss franc. With immediate effect, it will no longer tolerate a EUR/CHF (Swiss franc) exchange rate below the minimum rate of CHF1.20. The SNB will enforce this minimum rate with the utmost determination and is prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities. "
New money

Central banks don't usually use phrases like "unlimited" when it comes to creating money. And let's be clear - that is what this statement means. It says that, if necessary, the central bank will create an unlimited amount of Swiss national currency to buy foreign exchange and thereby push down the value of the franc.

If tested - and it surely will be - this could be a recipe for creating hundreds of billions of Swiss francs.

Mr Hildebrand will be *** a statement on national television tonight defending his actions, as well he might. But the clear message of the statement is that the central bank doesn't care about the inflationary implications of this intervention.

Or at least, it is not nearly as worried about that as it is about the deflationary implications of the high franc, which is throttling domestic industry.

The price of consumer goods is currently falling, and inflation overall is hovering around zero.
Short fix?

Will it work? Maybe, for a while. The franc fell by nearly 10% against the euro in a few minutes this morning, coming back slightly over the afternoon to close at 1.20 Swiss francs against the Euro.

Meanwhile the Swiss stock market closed more than 4%.

Apparently, the word "unlimited" is still worth something, even in a multi-trillion dollar global currency market.

But the record of currency pegs, and intervention in the markets to support them, is mixed at best. Indeed, it was precisely because European countries found it so hard to fix their exchange rates that the euro ever got off the ground.

The standard line from the academic literature is that central bank intervention in foreign exchange works only when it's in line with the fundamentals - and even then, only when lots of central banks work together.

Those conditions don't necessarily apply here.

In terms of the real economy, the Swiss currency certainly looks over-valued.
Wealth-destroying

But investors aren't looking at the fundamentals at the moment. They're not even looking for a positive return.

They're just looking for the least wealth-destroying option available.

Eventually, that will change: investors will stop looking for safe havens, and the Swiss central bank will find its job has become a lot easier.

But in the meantime, the Swiss authorities have declared war on a wall of cash which is a lot bigger than they are, and doesn't have a lot of other places to go.

Remember I said the other lesson of history was that interventions worked best when central banks worked together? There's little sign of that today.

Quite the opposite.

In fact, what we saw today was the next round of a global currency war.

There, the big lesson of history is that they don't produce many winners.

(转自Bloomberg)

Swiss Open New Round in Currency War

By Simon Kennedy and Emma Charlton - Sep 7, 2011 5:43 AM GMT

Switzerland opened a new round in a global currency war as fading economic growth forces policy makers to step up efforts to spur expansion.

The Swiss National Bank’s decision yesterday to cap the franc’s rate for the first time since 1978 marked a bid to protect trade hurt by the currency that last month reached a record high against the euro and the dollar. The franc plunged 8.4 percent yesterday against the euro, the most since the creation of Europe’s single currency. It was little changed in Asian trading, standing at 1.204 per euro at 1:42 p.m. in Tokyo.

The initiative may leave Norway and Sweden vulnerable to unwanted gains in their currencies as countries such as Brazil and Japan fight to limit appreciation amid a flight from the euro debt crisis and near-zero interest rates in the U.S. With Group of Seven finance chiefs set to hold talks this week, it also exposes the clash among policy makers counting on exports to offset slumping demand at home.

“We will see a lot more intervention now, we will see manipulation on a grand scale,” said Stuart Thomson, who helps oversee about $120 billion as a portfolio manager at Ignis Asset Management in Glasgow. “Traditional safe havens are trying to undermine the value of their currencies.”
Line in Sand

The Swiss central bank yesterday said it is “prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities” to keep the euro above 1.20 francs after previous sales, injections of liquidity into the money market and zero borrowing costs failed to repel investors seeking bigger or safer returns than those offered by the U.S. or euro area. Swiss companies including watchmaker Swatch Group AG say the franc’s strength is weighing on earnings and a slump in exports was among the reasons why the Swiss economy slowed in the second quarter.

The SNB’s unilateral move puts it head-to-head with a $4 trillion-a-day currency market that drove the franc up more than 16 percent against a basket of nine major peers in the year through Sept. 2, according to Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Currency Indexes. The euro fell 1.3 percent over the same period, while the dollar declined 12 percent, the indexes show.

The strategy shift is a sign other central banks may seek to weaken exchange rates in what Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega last year labeled a “currency war,” said David Bloom, global head of foreign-exchange strategy at HSBC Holdings Plc. London-based HSBC yesterday cut its forecast for global economic growth this year to 2.6 percent from 3 percent and called a healthy recovery a “distant dream.”
Trying to Win

“As we hit the zero bound in interest rates, central banks have shifted to exchange-rate policy, aiming to have the weakest currency in town,” Bloom said. “This is a game that everyone can’t win, but that doesn’t mean they won’t keep trying.”

Japan last month spent 4.51 trillion yen ($58 billion) on yen sales, the biggest intervention for any month since 2004, and Finance Minister Jun Azumi said yesterday he will highlight the dangers of the yen’s gains at the Sept. 9-10 G-7 meeting in Marseille, France.

Brazil’s Mantega last week expressed hope that a reduction in his country’s benchmark interest rate would help curb an appreciation in the real that he has sought to fight through tax policy and trade barriers.
Dollar’s Drop

Led by China, all of Asia’s 10 biggest economies last year sought to influence their own exchange rates to aid exporters as the dollar fell. The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against the currencies of six U.S. trading partners, has fallen almost 8 percent in the past year, as the U.S. Federal Reserve kept its key rate near zero and bought $600 billion of bonds between November and June.

Other economies also may be forced to join the fight, said Geoffrey Yu, a foreign-exchange strategist at UBS AG in London. “If people leave the franc and the yen and get crowded in to the likes of Sweden and Norway, how far are the local economies going to tolerate their currencies strengthening before they do something as well,” he said.

HSBC yesterday recommended Norway’s currency as an alternative after the SNB’s action. The krone has strengthened 4.5 percent against its nine major peers over the past year, Bloomberg’s correlation-weighted indexes show, prompting Finance Minister Sigbjoern Johnsen and central bank Governor Oeystein Olsen to signal they’ll act to stem currency gains that hurt exports.
Japan’s Stance

Japanese policy makers are “unlikely” to follow Switzerland’s move to set a franc ceiling because their economy is so much bigger, said Masaaki Kanno, the Bank of Japan’s former chief foreign-exchange dealer and now chief Japan economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. Japan’s gross domestic product is the world’s third largest.

“The big difference between Switzerland and Japan is size of economy,” he said. If Japan set an upper limit for the yen at 75 or 70 per dollar, it would need to purchase a potentially “infinite” amount of dollars, something that would upset the U.S., he said.

Thanos Papasavvas, head of currency management at Investec Asset Management Ltd., which oversees about $95 billion in London, said he thinks the Swiss intervention will work because the franc was “extremely expensive” while other nations with less excessive valuations may struggle to influence their currencies.
Fillip for Market

The selling of the franc may nevertheless help stabilize markets by forcing investors to return to riskier assets, said Jim O’Neill, chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management in London.

“Simply intervening in the franc won’t solve all the world’s problems, but it might help markets be more balanced in their herd-like panic,” said O’Neill.

Switzerland’s move also demonstrates how three years since the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., central banks are having to adopt new tools to boost growth after cutting interest rates at or near record lows, buying bonds and injecting billions in their financial systems, said Neil MacKinnon, global macro strategist at VTB Capital in London.

With its second round of bond buying failing to spur growth or hiring, the Fed may decide at its Sept. 20-21 meeting to replace short-term Treasuries in its $1.65 trillion portfolio with long-term bonds to lower rates on everything from mortgages to car loans, say economists at Barclays Capital and Wells Fargo & Co. Citigroup Inc. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. see the Bank of England restarting bond purchases as early as this week.

“The financial and economic crisis has tested the innovative powers of central banks,” said MacKinnon, a former U.K. Treasury official. “Conventional tools such as rate reductions and currency intervention have failed to work and that reflects the extraordinary times in which we live.”

人民币国际化步伐在加快

尼日利亚央行行长Lamido Sanusi周三(9月7日)表示，将从下个季度起将部分外汇储备转换成人民币。



他周二(9月6日)在北京访问期间表示，人民币毫无疑问将成为全球储备货币，而美国债信评级遭降增加了尼日利亚外汇储备多元化的紧迫性。尼日利亚正考虑在中尼石油贸易中以人民币结算的可能性。



Sanusi周一(9月5日)指出，尼日利亚央行准备分散配置外汇储备，减持美元，将10%的外汇储备转为人民币。